
In
the ensuing struggle, Napoleon wrote that he was continually harassed by
“clouds of Arabs, ” the Bedouin. The author, interspersing his narrative with
entertaining stories, describes in detail the interactions of the various
subgroups and their leaders: the Bedouin tribesmen, peasants, merchants, the
clerics of Cairo’s al-Azhar university, and the Ottoman vassals that made up
the social ecosystem of 18th century Egypt, its conflicts and its
truces. To begin to understand contemporary events in the Mideast, the reader
can then add the continuing issue of modernization.
On 4/1/08, PBS aired an analysis of the current situation in Iraq.
Every militia group in the country has been armed. The central
government will not be able to exert its authority if challenged.
Everyone is now just waiting, hoping that violence doesn’t break out.
3. What to do about Iraq? What is the reality
of Iraq that should inform public opinion and the present debate in Washington?
We suggest this 10/05
analysis by Terrill and Crane, of the army, that describes a United States
trying to consolidate a fissiparous situation. In the authors’ words, “We can’t
stay, we can’t leave, and we can’t fail.”
They write, “A timetable
(for withdrawal) is not a strategy for even the most limited form of success in
Iraq; it is an excuse for allowing the system to collapse.” Although the
establishment of a viable government responsive to local interests is still
possible, after reviewing the “dismal” political record of prior U.S. postwar
stabilizations, the study suggests that U.S. leadership also “consider what its
minimum goals for Iraq are, and ensure that they are met before political
pressures from both the Middle East and within the United States become
untenable.”
This
lengthy study is exceptionally clear, although its message is difficult. It ends
with the statement, “U.S. leaders should continually note the courage,
commitment, and sacrifice of our troops in the field, while realizing that
these same qualities are reasons to safeguard their lives even more carefully.
All future wars should have carefully planned exit strategies based on
something other than best case planning for the future of the countries
involved. In undertaking such plans, the United States must take care to
maintain realistic expectations of what it can actually achieve with military
intervention, especially with regard to the imposition of market economies and
democracy on states we do not fully understand.”
These are the alternatives in Iraq, without the significant involvement of other countries.